2019 Roland Garros Preview
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| What's about to happen? Pssht. No idea. |
There are things in life that we hope for passionately, desperately, and perhaps a little foolishly, since we know the likelihood of such hopes coming true are quite slim.
One such hope is that the 2019 French Open Women’s Championship does not end up like Rome.
If that “tournament”, which saw 7 players-- including Serena Williams, Naomi Osaka, and Petra Kvitova-- withdraw, AND Johanna Konta make the final, is an omen of what’s to come in the year’s second slam then Lord help us all, we’re in for quite a bit of fuckery.
Overall, the clay season so far has largely been uneventful and even *gasp* predictable-- a word not commonly used to describe the tour these days. Those who have have been historically successful on clay (Simona Halep, Kiki Bertens, Kvitova) had their moments, with only a few surprises (and many withdrawals) thrown in.
There were no memorable matches. No (truly) stunning upsets. No real development of (worthwhile) story lines. And essentially no drama.
Basically we're in either for a snooze fest or a shit show.
So...without further ado or much much enthusiasm, let's run down of how things might pan out over the next fortnight. I will be
Seed Report: TennisTea Style!
1. Naomi Osaka: The reigning Australian Open and Australian Open champion has actually be surprisingly steady on clay, given her dip in form after splitting with her coach. That said, the probability of her winning her third slam is not too great; she has a mildly difficult draw and has yet to truly prove herself on clay.
2. Karolina Pliskova: She took advantage of the depleted field in Rome to win her biggest title of the year (and arguably biggest to date). The perception of her as a average clay-courter are unfounded-- she good on the surface-- and she has a pretty damn good draw until the semis. Will her circuits scramble deep as she reaches would could be her first slam title though?
3. Simona Halep: Halep was solid in Madrid and has a cushy draw into the second week. The defending French Open champion always seems to be vaguely injured, but definitely has a chance to play herself into form in her favorite of the four slams.
4. Kiki Bertens: She arguably had the best clay season of anyone, with a title in Madrid and a semifinal in Rome. However, solid form has not always leading into a Grand Slam has equated with a solid Grand Slam performance for the Dutchwoman. Last spring she was the break out star of the clay court season and then lost in the third round in Paris. Last summer she won a big event in Cincinnati leading up to the US Open, but then lost in the third round in New York. Her draw is potentially tricky, but maybe this time she'll buck the trend...
5.Angelique Kerber: Her winning her fourth Grand Slam on her worst surface and after only have played 3 matches in the past month? Not gonna happen.
6.Petra Kvitova: Maybe she'll win. Maybe she flame out early. That's part of the fun with Grand Slam Petra! Her results day in and day out are as good as anyone's on the tour, and she won in Stuttgart. But her performance in Grand Slams is not very consistent, and she doesn't have a great draw (could play Anett Kontaveit in the fourth round, and the Estonian beat her here last year). Maybe her final appearance in Melbourne will give her a confidence boost to go far here.
7.Sloane Stephens: She made it to the finals of the French Open last year, where she completely withered away after being a set and a break on Simona Halep. Her lead up to this year's French Open has been solid if not spectacular. Her French Open result will probably mirror that.
8. Ashleigh Barty: The Australian hasn't done as well leading up to the French Open as I predicted. But she hasn't done poorly either. With her draw, it seems likely that she'll make it to the second week from which point things could get interesting.
9. Elina Svitolina: In another year, a solid maybe. This year? A solid no.
10. Serena Williams
I mean is there anything I need to say that this picture doesn't? Serena is probably not healthy enough to play here, or at least she wants us to think that. Her draw is reasonable, but a lot will depend on how healthy she actually is, or how badly she actually wants to win the event. Maybe in her mind she'll want to save herself and her knee cartilage for Wimbledon which she has a much realistic shot at winning. It wouldn't be surprising if she pulls out after a round or two, or maybe even before the tournament begins.
11. Aryna Sabalenka: Honestly, her start has dimmed since her breakout moment at the end of last season. She plays Amanda Aminisova, who smoked her at the Australian Open, in the first round. She'll probably get through their contest this time around, but I would be surprised if she gets through her second round encounter with Kontaveit.
12. Anastasija Sevastova: Her draw makes a run to the quarterfinals possible. She is not interesting enough to write more about.
13. Caroline Wozniacki: Injured and possibly uninterested. If she doesn't lose in the first round, she won't make it much further. Retirement beckons.
14. Madison Keys: Proving that Family Circle Cup is kind of a meaningless tournament, Keys has not been pretty mediocre since winning in Charleston earlier this spring. She doesn't have a good draw, and should not be expected to repeat her semifinal performance from last year.
15. Belinda Bencic: She's been ok-not great-not terrible on clay this year, and managed to make it to the semifinals of Madrid. A fourth round meeting with Bertens looms (which she will probably lose).
16. Qiang Wang: No.
17. Anett Kontaveit: She made the final of Stuttgart but was pretty meh elsewhere. Still, you get the sense that she could shake things up here. She has a difficult draw, which includes a match-up with Kvitova in the fourth round.
18. Julia Goerges: No.
19. Garbine Muguruza: Yeah she won the French Open three years ago, but there is nothing she has done on clay this year to suggest she's in that kind of form. Expect an early-ish upset unless she gets some sudden, unexpected burst of confidence from somewhere.
20. Elise Mertens: Next.
21. Daria Kasatkina: Next.
22. Bianca Andreescu: It's a pity her injury destroyed her Indian Wells momentum because maybe she could have been a factor. As it stands, she hasn't played for two months, and I doubt she'll get through Kenin in the first round.
24, 25. Caroline Garcia, Hsieh Su Wei: Neither is happening. Won't go in depth.
26. Johanna Konta: Somehow a player who once very defensively explained why she's historically sucked on clay, made the final of Rome, beating some solid players to boot. She's a confidence player and that bodes well for her chances to do well here, but a third round rematch with Bertens might be tough to get through.
27. Lesia Tsurenko: Will probably make the finals.
28. Carla Suarez Navarro: Seemingly has a random good performance at a slam every year. Maybe this year it'll be here.
29. Maria Sakkari: A possible dark horse contender? She has the kind of grinding, annoying game that could give make a player doubt herself on clay, and she's had good results leading into the tournament. A third round showdown with Osaka will be telling, My hot take: she wins that match and goes deep.
30 .Mihaela Buzarnescu: It's too bad she hurt herself during the lead up to the US Open last year. She was on an upward trajectory. Not likely to get past the first three rounds here, as she did last year.
31. Petra Martic: Won a lesser tournament in Istanbul and has generally had good results throughout the clay season. Still, a second round with Kristina Mladenovic could be tricky, and even if she wins that, she's very unlikely to get through Pliskova in round three even.
32. Aliaksandra Sasnovich: Who?
Unseeded and Looming
Marketa Vondrousova- Czech this one out! The crafty left-handed teen has scored two wins over Halep this year, and made it to the quarters of Rome. She due for a big breakthrough. Look for her to take out Kerber and the second round and then go big from there.
Jelena Ostapenko- She won the French Open just two years ago so I have to mention her. Can be terrible or amazing. Which one will we see?
Victoria Azarenka- Has shown glimpses of form in the past two months. Still doesn't quite seem to have quite found the consistency to take it to in-form players round after round. Will probably lose to Osaka in the second round, but if she doesn't...
Dayana Yastremska- The 18-year-old just won a tournament in Strasbourg as I'm writing this. Tournaments the week before Grand Slams aren't usually very telling, but if she can get past Suarez Navarro in the first round and potentially Vondrousova in the third, this could be her breakout Grand Slam.
Kristina Mladenovic- It seems like the partnership with Sasha Baijin is kinda-sorta starting to pay dividends. She made it to the quarters of Rome beating Bencic and Barty along the way, and she likes to play in front of the French crowd (and antagonize her opponent while doing so). Will she have a reason to say "c'mon" in 25 different languages during the upcoming fortnight?
Kateryna Kozlova- "Who?" you ask? The Ukrainian has an interesting game and a killer drop shot which helped her beat Pliskova in Madrid. It might seem like a long shot, but I think she has a chance to take out both Muguruza and Stephens...and potentially make the quarterfinals. It's my WTF? Why WTA?? prediction of the tournament!
My God That Was Long. What are Your Actual Predictions?
Quarters:
(29) Sakkari def. (8) Barty
(3) Halep def. (6) Kvitova
(4) Bertens def. Kozlova
(2) Pliskova def. Vondrousova
Semis
(3) Halep def. (29) Sakkari
(4) Bertens def. (2) Pliskova
Final
(4) Bertens def. (3) Halep
So, do you think I'm crazy? Are you wary of trusting me because my clay court season predictions in my first post were only so-so? Sound off below! Also do not forget to follow me here or on Twitter for more sassy takes on the French Open as it unfolds!
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